The Daily Star Ireland
Stage: EuroBasket 2025 Semifinal
Venue: Riga, Latvia
Recent Form, Momentum & Stats
- Turkey powered through their quarterfinal versus Poland with a dominant performance, keyed especially by Alperen Şengün, who registered a triple‑double and helped control the interior. They showed strong rebounding numbers, offensive second‑chance points, and befit from their efficient offense and bench contributions.
- Greece also came in with momentum after a crunch win over Lithuania. Giannis was instrumental, especially in overcoming an early deficit. Greece have shown resilience, especially in tight games, and a capacity to adjust when opponents get runs.
- Germany recently thrashed Finland 91‑61 in the group stage, showing how dangerous dominant bench depth and rebounding strength can be. Finland’s struggles in that game show what can happen when hot shooting nights aren’t present.
- Finland’s historic run to the semifinals (first time in their history) was built on strong perimeter shooting, even scoring bursts from role players, and clutch play in key moments. This reflects how momentum and confidence can push a team beyond expectations.
Key Players & Matchups
- Giannis Antetokounmpo (Greece): The central star. His ability to dominate the paint, initiate offense off post-ups and drives, and pressure rebounds will be crucial. If he’s in rhythm, Greece will lean heavily on him to close the game.
- Alperen Şengün (Turkey): Probably Turkey’s strongest interior weapon. He not only scores and rebounds but also facilitates, which is unusual for a big man. His matchup vs Greece’s bigs is going to be decisive.
- Supporting casts: Greece’s perimeter shooters and wings (look for Sloukas, Dorsey, etc.) will need to knock down open shots; otherwise, Turkey’s defensive pressure and size may clog the lanes. Turkey’s secondary creators must exploit spacing and attacking mismatches off the bench.
- Bench depth: Turkey’s bench has delivered lately; if Greece can match energy and scoring off their second units, the game stays tight. If not, Turkey could pull away in the second half.
Tactical Analysis & What To Watch
- Pace & Tempo: Turkey may try to push tempo when they win defensive boards or force turnovers. Greece might prefer to slow the game down, play through structured half‑court sets, and avoid giving Turkey transition opportunities.
- Interior vs Perimeter: The paint battle between Şengün and Giannis (and whoever supports them inside) will carry weight. On the perimeter, Turkey has shooters who can punish rotations; Greece must defend closeouts and cover the wings.
- Foul trouble & rotation control: Giannis getting into early foul trouble could shift momentum. Turkey must avoid allowing Greece easy access inside or free throws in second‑chance situations.
- Clutch moments: Greece have shown composure in tight finishes. Turkey’s ability to impose their pace and finish possessions under pressure will test that.
Betting Insights & Angles
- Outcome Prediction: Greece win narrowly (e.g. 84‑80). Expect a close second half with Greece’s experience giving them the edge.
- Spread: Greece −4 to −6 feels reasonable given their track record in tight games.
- Total Points: Lean Over 165.5 if the game opens up; if Turkey controls rebounds and defense, Under may be safer.
- Player Props:
- Şengün over rebounds + points – interior dominance likely.
- Giannis over points or combined points + rebounds – key for Greece’s control.
- Two‑way prop: first to score 10 points – likely Giannis.
Prediction
Greece have the more battle‑tested roster, the star power, and momentum in tight situations. Turkey are dangerous, especially with Şengün and strong bench play, but Greece’s capacity to adjust, their experience, and Giannis’ leadership will likely deliver a narrow win.
Prediction: Greece 84 – Turkey 80
X‑Factor: How Greece manage the last 5 minutes — their ability to limit turnovers, secure defensive rebounds, and get Giannis scoring under pressure.
