Bulgaria vs Italy Volleyball Prediction, Preview – 2025 FIVB Volleyball World Championship

And then there were two. The 2025 FIVB Volleyball World Championship reaches its grand finale on Sunday, with Bulgaria set to face defending champions Italy in what promises to be a historic battle. For Bulgaria, it’s a chance to claim their first-ever world title, while Italy have their sights set on defending their crown and joining the ranks of back-to-back winners like Poland in 2014 and 2018.

Bulgaria’s Remarkable Journey

Seeded just 19th entering the tournament, Bulgaria were not expected to make a deep run. Drawn into Pool E, they were considered outsiders behind higher-ranked Slovenia and Germany. Yet, the Lions turned heads with three straight wins, including upsets against both favorites.

Their knockout stage performances only solidified their reputation as giant-killers. Bulgaria dispatched Portugal and then stunned the United States in the quarter-finals, before delivering a resilient semi-final victory over the Czech Republic. Despite their opponents levelling the match at one set apiece, Bulgaria regrouped and pushed through for a 3-1 triumph.

Stake

This run marks Bulgaria’s best showing in nearly two decades, having previously earned four bronze medals (most recently in 2006) and a single silver way back in 1970. However, history weighs heavy—Bulgaria’s last win over Italy came in 2015 at the European Games, and Gli Azzurri have since dominated the rivalry.

Italy’s Road to the Final

Italy entered the tournament as the fifth seed, but their campaign almost derailed early when they suffered a surprise 3-2 loss to Belgium in the group stage. That defeat proved to be a wake-up call. From that point onward, Gli Azzurri have looked unstoppable, sweeping Ukraine, Argentina, and the Red Dragons without dropping a set.

Their crowning performance came in the semi-finals, where they demolished world number one Poland in straight sets. The dominant win underlined their status as favorites, as Italy now chase a fifth world championship title and a place in history alongside volleyball’s elite dynasties.

Star Players to Watch

Bulgaria’s young sensation, Aleksandar Nikolov, has been the breakout star of the tournament. The 21-year-old outside hitter exploded for 31 points in the semi-final against the Czech Republic, including 27 kills. With 150 total points, he is the competition’s top scorer by a wide margin, underscoring his impact on Bulgaria’s run. Captain Aleks Grozdanov has also shone at the net, recording 17 kill blocks—the highest in the tournament.

Italy, however, counter with a depth of firepower. Alessandro Michieletto has led the charge with 82 points, combining precision in attack with consistency on serve and block. Meanwhile, Yuri Romano was Italy’s hero against Poland, tallying 15 points to continue his climb into the tournament’s top scorers. The trio of Michieletto, Romano, and other consistent contributors makes Italy one of the most balanced teams in the competition.

Key Stats and Trends

  • Bulgaria are unbeaten in this year’s tournament.
  • Italy suffered just one defeat, against Belgium, before going on a dominant run.
  • Aleksandar Nikolov leads all scorers with 150 points.
  • Four of Bulgaria’s five matches have ended with more than 150.5 total points.
  • Historically, Italy have beaten Bulgaria in nine straight encounters.
  • Twelve of the last 14 meetings between the two sides have exceeded 150.5 points.

Prediction: Bulgaria vs Italy

Italy’s experience and recent form make them clear favorites, but Bulgaria’s fearless run and Nikolov’s brilliance suggest this final won’t be straightforward. The Lions have shown they can rise to the occasion, and history indicates matches between these sides rarely end in straight sets.

Stake

Our prediction: Italy to win, but with the match going over 150.5 total points. Expect a hard-fought final, with Bulgaria pushing the champions before Gli Azzurri ultimately prevail.

Predicted outcome: Over 150.5 points

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