The Daily Star Ireland
Poland and Lithuania lock horns in a crucial World Cup 2026 qualifier at the PGE Narodowy Stadium in Warsaw. Both nations are under pressure to revive their campaigns after a string of disappointing results. Poland, winless in five matches, desperately need a response on home soil, while Lithuania arrive looking to end a poor run of form that’s left their qualification hopes hanging by a thread.
Match Preview
Poland’s World Cup qualifying journey has gone off track in recent months. Head coach Michal Probierz is facing growing scrutiny after his side’s heavy 5-1 defeat to Portugal and a 2-1 loss to Scotland. The return of talisman Robert Lewandowski offers a much-needed lift, with the Barcelona forward expected to lead the line once again. Supporting him are creative midfielders Sebastian Szymański and Jakub Moder, both crucial in transitioning play from deep. However, defensive lapses have become a recurring issue — Poland have conceded 13 goals in their last four matches, exposing vulnerabilities in the backline.
The likely defensive setup will include Matty Cash, Jan Bednarek, and Jakub Kiwior, a trio tasked with restoring stability. Despite their struggles, Poland remain a dangerous side at home, having scored in 12 of their last 13 matches in Warsaw.
Lithuania, on the other hand, find themselves in equally dire straits. Edgaras Jankauskas’s men have lost six consecutive games, the most recent being a 1-0 defeat to Kosovo despite holding a man advantage for over 30 minutes. Their defensive record paints a grim picture — 16 goals conceded in their last six qualifiers — and their attack has often lacked bite. Lithuania’s last victory came nearly a year ago, and their away form remains inconsistent, with two wins in their previous five outings.
Jankauskas will once again rely on midfielder Gvidas Gineitis and striker Armandas Kučys to provide creativity and a cutting edge up front. Still, overcoming a Polish side stacked with experience and attacking options looks a tall order.
Team Form & Recent Results
Poland (Last 5 matches): L D L L L
Lithuania (Last 5 matches): L L L L L
Neither side enters this fixture with momentum, but Poland’s superior quality and home advantage give them a clear edge.
Head-to-Head Record
Poland and Lithuania have met nine times in official competition. The Poles dominate the record with six wins and two draws, while Lithuania have claimed victory just once. Their last encounter came in 2018 — a 4-0 victory for Poland in a friendly — underlining the gulf in class between the two teams.
Lineups, Injuries & Suspensions
Poland Predicted XI: Szczęsny (GK); Cash, Bednarek, Kiwior, Puchacz; Szymański, Moder, Slisz; Zieliński; Lewandowski, Buksa
Lithuania Predicted XI: Setkus (GK); Lasickas, Šatkus, Klimavičius, Slavickas; Gineitis, Beneta; Kučys, Novikovas, Kazlauskas; Lasickas
Injuries: Poland – None major; Lithuania – Armanas (out)
Tactical Analysis & Key Players
Poland’s approach under Probierz emphasizes possession and direct vertical play through the midfield. With Zieliński pulling the strings and Lewandowski acting as the focal point, expect the hosts to dictate the tempo early. Defensive concentration will be key — Poland’s full-backs often push high, leaving space behind that Lithuania could exploit on the counter.
Lithuania, conversely, will sit deep in a compact 4-4-1-1 formation, looking to frustrate Poland and hit on the break through Kučys and Novikovas. Their set-piece delivery remains their best attacking outlet, especially given Poland’s recent struggles defending crosses.
Odds, Markets & Betting Tips
- Match Winner: Poland (1.35) | Draw (4.80) | Lithuania (9.50)
- Over/Under 2.5 Goals: Over (1.90) | Under (1.75)
- Both Teams to Score: Yes (2.30) | No (1.57)
Betting Insights:
- Poland have scored at least two goals in six of their last eight home matches.
- Lithuania have failed to find the net in four of their last five games.
- Four of Poland’s last six fixtures have produced under 2.5 goals.
Where to Watch Online & Kickoff Time
Venue: PGE Narodowy Stadium, Warsaw
Date: October 13, 2025
Kickoff Time: 20:45 local time
Broadcast: Viaplay, Polsat Sport, UEFA.tv (region-dependent)
Prediction: Poland vs Lithuania, World Cup 2026 Qualifiers
This matchup looks straightforward on paper — Poland’s attacking quality and home advantage should see them through. Lithuania’s defensive organization may keep things close early on, but Lewandowski’s influence and Poland’s superior midfield control will likely prove decisive. Expect the visitors to defend deep, but fatigue and individual quality will tilt the contest in the hosts’ favor.
