The Daily Star Ireland
Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin has suffered a sharp decline in personal approval ratings, according to a new Irish Times/Ipsos Behaviour & Attitudes poll. The survey indicates Martin’s support has dropped by 11 percentage points, marking his lowest rating in five years, as fallout continues over the Jim Gavin presidential candidacy controversy.
Fianna Fáil Support Slips Amid Leadership Turmoil
The poll also shows a notable slide in party support. Fianna Fáil has fallen by five points, now standing at 17%, placing it behind both Sinn Féin and Fine Gael in voter preference.
By contrast, Sinn Féin has surged ahead, gaining five points to reach 27%, reclaiming a significant lead. Fine Gael has inched upward by one point to 18%, while Labour climbed by two to 6%.
Among smaller parties, the Social Democrats slipped by one point to 5%, while Aontú gained one to 3%. The Green Party (3%), People Before Profit–Solidarity (2%), and Independent Ireland (2%) all remained unchanged. Support for independent and non-aligned candidates held steady at 17%.
The findings reflect a turbulent political landscape for Fianna Fáil, which has struggled to recover from the public backlash following the collapse of Jim Gavin’s presidential campaign.
The Jim Gavin Fallout
The controversy stems from former Dublin football manager Jim Gavin’s sudden withdrawal from the presidential race earlier this month, despite having been officially endorsed by Fianna Fáil. The move blindsided the party and sparked internal criticism of Martin’s handling of the nomination process.
Party insiders have suggested that Martin was instrumental in persuading Fianna Fáil members to back Gavin as a unity candidate, making the former manager’s exit a significant personal and political blow for the leader.
The poll, conducted between October 12 and 14—just days after Gavin’s withdrawal—captures the immediate public response to the crisis. Interviews were conducted face-to-face with 1,200 respondents, with a margin of error of ±2.8%.
Leadership Ratings: Martin Down, McDonald Up
Martin’s approval as party leader now stands at 33%, down from 44% in the last comparable survey and his weakest showing since 2020. However, while his popularity has taken a substantial hit, most voters do not believe he should resign over the incident.
When asked directly whether Martin should step down as Fianna Fáil leader, 51% of respondents said no, compared to 32% who felt he should. The remaining respondents were undecided.
Meanwhile, Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald has seen a 3-point rise in her personal rating, now at 39%, solidifying her position as the most popular major party leader. In contrast, Taoiseach Simon Harris of Fine Gael experienced a 3-point drop to 35%, suggesting that public sentiment remains volatile across all major parties.
A Challenging Period for Fianna Fáil
The results come at a sensitive time for Fianna Fáil, which has been grappling with questions about its identity, leadership direction, and electoral prospects ahead of future local and general elections. While Martin retains a measure of personal loyalty within his party, the decline in both his and Fianna Fáil’s ratings points to growing voter unease.
Political analysts suggest that the fallout from the Gavin episode could linger, particularly as opposition parties seek to capitalize on the perception of instability within Fianna Fáil.
Still, with a slim majority of voters opposing Martin’s resignation, it appears that while public confidence has eroded, there remains some appetite for continuity—at least for now.
