The Daily Star Ireland
Athletic Bilbao face Qarabag FK at San Mamés Stadium in a key UEFA Champions League group-stage clash. The Basques are still searching for their first points in the competition, while Qarabag arrive in Bilbao full of confidence after a dream start to their campaign. With both sides in contrasting form, this matchup could define their European ambitions going forward.
Match Preview
Athletic Bilbao are back in the Champions League after a long absence, but their return has been far from smooth. The Basques have struggled to adapt to the pace of Europe’s elite, falling 0–2 to Arsenal at home before suffering a 4–1 defeat to Borussia Dortmund away. This week, they’ll view Qarabag as a crucial opportunity to reset and ignite their group-stage hopes.
In La Liga, Ernesto Valverde’s men started brightly with three straight wins, but the injury to Nico Williams derailed their rhythm. A four-game winless streak followed before they finally found stability with a 2–0 victory over Mallorca before the international break. Bilbao now sit 8th in La Liga, just two points behind the top four.
Qarabag, meanwhile, have been one of the surprise packages of this Champions League season. The Azerbaijani champions stunned Benfica 3–2 in Lisbon on Matchday 1 before following up with a convincing 2–0 home win over Copenhagen. Their dynamic and organized play has made them an unexpected contender in Group D.
Domestically, Qarabag continue to dominate the Azerbaijan Premier League, winning 11 of the last 12 league titles. They currently occupy 3rd place in the standings, boasting four wins, one draw, and one loss. With momentum on their side, they’ll be confident of causing another upset in Spain.
Team Form & Recent Results
Athletic Bilbao (Last 5 Matches): W–L–D–L–W
- Goals Scored: 5
- Goals Conceded: 7
- Clean Sheets: 2
Qarabag (Last 5 Matches): W–W–L–W–D
- Goals Scored: 9
- Goals Conceded: 4
- Clean Sheets: 3
Bilbao’s home form remains a strength, with 16 wins from their last 19 matches at San Mamés across all competitions. Qarabag, however, have been poor travelers in Europe, taking just one point from their last nine away matches in UEFA competition — conceding 23 goals in that stretch.
Head-to-Head Record
This will be the first-ever meeting between Athletic Bilbao and Qarabag.
- Bilbao vs Azerbaijani clubs: Unbeaten (2W, 1D)
- Qarabag vs Spanish clubs: Winless (0W, 2D, 4L)
History clearly favors the hosts, but Qarabag’s recent form suggests they won’t be easily intimidated.
Lineups, Injuries & Team News
Athletic Bilbao (expected lineup):
Unai Simón – De Marcos, Vivian, Laporte, Paredes – Vesga, Ruiz de Galarreta – Nico Williams, Muniain, Berenguer – Guruzeta
Unavailable: Sancet (muscle), Vesga (ankle), Prados (knee), Egiluz (not registered), Yeray (suspended)
Doubtful: Iñaki Williams, Berenguer (fitness)
Key Players:
- Nico Williams: Recently returned from injury, Bilbao’s main creative force.
- Unai Simón: Spain’s No.1 goalkeeper, crucial for organization at the back.
- Guruzeta: Top scorer domestically, strong aerial presence in attack.
Qarabag (expected lineup):
Lunev – Bayramov, Medina, Mustafazade, Vesovic – Zoubir, Zafeiris, Andrade, Jankovic – Duran, Chory
Unavailable: Jankovic (injured)
Key Players:
- Zoubir: Veteran attacker, scored in both the league and Champions League.
- Leandro Andrade: Creative playmaker who thrives between the lines.
- Baryamov: Top domestic scorer (3 goals), effective from the bench.
Tactical Analysis & Key Players
Athletic Bilbao’s Plan:
Ernesto Valverde’s 4-2-3-1 setup relies on pressing intensity and quick transitions through the wings. The return of Nico Williams adds pace and unpredictability, while Guruzeta’s movement should help stretch Qarabag’s compact defense. Bilbao’s full-backs will look to overlap aggressively, with De Marcos providing width and service from the right.
Qarabag’s Strategy:
Gurban Gurbanov’s side are tactically disciplined, often switching between a 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1 shape. Expect them to absorb pressure and counter rapidly through Zoubir and Andrade, targeting space behind Bilbao’s high line. Qarabag’s midfield pressing will be vital in cutting off Bilbao’s supply to the flanks.
Key Duels:
- Nico Williams vs Vesovic: Bilbao’s most explosive attacker against an experienced defender.
- Guruzeta vs Mustafazade: Physical aerial contest in the penalty area.
- Zoubir vs Vivian: Speed vs structure — could decide Qarabag’s counter-attacking success.
Odds, Markets & Betting Tips
1X2 Odds: Athletic Bilbao 1.50 | Draw 4.10 | Qarabag 6.75
Over/Under 2.5 Goals: Over 1.80 | Under 1.95
Both Teams to Score (BTTS): Yes 2.00 | No 1.75
Top Betting Picks:
- Athletic Bilbao to Win (1.50): Strong home record and superior squad depth.
- Under 2.5 Goals (1.95): Bilbao’s recent matches at home have been low-scoring.
- Nico Williams to Score Anytime (2.40): Back from injury and likely to feature heavily in attack.
Quick Facts (Featured Snippet):
- Venue: San Mamés Stadium, Bilbao, Spain
- Kickoff: Wednesday, October 23, 2025 – 21:00 CET / 20:00 BST
- Competition: UEFA Champions League 2025/26 – Group Stage
- Broadcast: TNT Sports, DAZN, Paramount+
Where to Watch Online & Kickoff Time
Live Broadcast: TNT Sports (UK), DAZN (Europe), Paramount+ (US)
Kickoff: October 23, 2025 – 21:00 CET
Prediction: Athletic Bilbao vs Qarabag, UEFA Champions League 2025/26
Athletic Bilbao are desperate for their first win, and their home strength could make the difference. Qarabag’s recent European form commands respect, but their defensive frailties on the road are a concern. Expect Bilbao to control possession, press high, and create enough chances to claim a convincing victory.
Final Prediction: Athletic Bilbao 3–0 Qarabag
Best Bet: Athletic Bilbao to Win & Over 2.5 Goals
Alternative Value: Nico Williams to Score Anytime
Bilbao’s intensity and quality at San Mamés should overwhelm Qarabag, helping the Basques finally get their European campaign back on track.
