The Daily Star Ireland
France’s government is currently facing no confidence votes that could bring an abrupt end to Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s brief tenure, potentially plunging the nation into political turmoil. If Mr. Barnier’s government falls after only three months in office, President Emmanuel Macron will be faced with a difficult decision on how to proceed and whom to appoint as the new prime minister.
The National Assembly is set to debate two no confidence motions brought forth by the hard-left and far-right factions. The conflict stems from Mr. Barnier’s handling of the budget, where he forced through the social security budget without a parliamentary vote.
Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN) is expected to support the motion initiated by the left, giving it the necessary numbers to pass. When asked on French television about the chances of his government surviving the vote, Mr. Barnier expressed hope, stating that it depended on the MPs and their sense of responsibility beyond political differences.
Despite this optimism, most analysts believe the government is likely to fall due to the unexpected alliance between the far-right and the left.
The current political instability follows snap elections called by President Macron in the summer, which failed to stop the rise of the far right and left no party or faction with a clear majority in parliament. Mr. Barnier assumed office under constant threat from Ms. Le Pen’s far-right faction, which has the power to topple his administration.
President Macron cannot call for new elections for a year after the last legislative polls, significantly limiting his options. Some have even suggested that he could resign, but Macron dismissed this idea as “political fiction.”
Macron has accused Le Pen’s RN of “unbearable cynicism” in backing the motion that threatens Mr. Barnier’s government. He emphasized that there is no need to scare people, as France has a strong economy. Although many commentators believe that the government will be brought down, Macron remains hopeful, stating he cannot believe the no-confidence motion will pass.
If the government does fall, it would be the first successful no-confidence vote since Georges Pompidou’s government was defeated in 1962, under President Charles de Gaulle. The fall of Barnier’s government would also mark the shortest tenure of any administration in France’s Fifth Republic, established in 1958.
Some observers believe that Ms. Le Pen is taking a significant risk by seeking to oust Macron before his term ends, particularly as she faces a high-profile embezzlement trial. If found guilty in March, she could be barred from running in France’s next presidential election in 2027.
