The Daily Star Ireland
Fine Gael strategists are now acknowledging that Fianna Fáil is likely to secure more seats than their party following a series of campaign setbacks for Taoiseach Simon Harris. This outcome would position Micheál Martin to become Taoiseach ahead of Harris.
Fine Gael’s previously confident stance on winning the most seats has diminished after several damaging incidents. In the final days of the campaign, Fine Gael plans to focus on their economic strengths, with Paschal Donohoe emphasizing the risks to jobs and the need for stability. Fianna Fáil, meanwhile, is poised to gain seats in various constituencies, partly due to transfers from Fine Gael.
Strategists are questioning the effectiveness of the “Brand Harris” strategy, with sources describing the Taoiseach as “worn out,” “too nervous,” and “overextended.” The party will now rely on outgoing Public Expenditure Minister Donohoe to convey their message of “experience,” an area where Fianna Fáil leader Martin has had an advantage.
Harris’s performance in the leaders’ debate was underwhelming, and he faced a difficult encounter with a care worker in Kanturk, Co Cork. He apologized to Charlotte Fallon, a disability worker, after a clip of their exchange went viral. The latest Sunday Independent/Ireland Thinks poll showed Fine Gael dropping four points to 22%, Fianna Fáil remaining steady at 20%, and Sinn Féin rising two points to 20%.
Fine Gael insiders attribute recent mishaps to Harris’s lack of electoral and leadership experience. They believe he overextended himself by trying to campaign extensively across the country. His mistake in Kanturk is seen as a result of fatigue, and there are concerns about the management of his campaign tour, which failed to anticipate the incident.
One strategist noted that Harris is exhausted and facing a challenging situation, but still trying hard to connect with voters. Another strategist attributed Harris’s mistake to tiredness and expressed confidence that it could be overcome, emphasizing that no one doubts his concern for disabilities. The strategist also praised Harris’s leadership, suggesting that the party’s situation would be worse under a different leader.
An election candidate commented on Harris’s exhaustion, noting that everyone is tired and the next 48 hours will be crucial. An outgoing TD described the campaign as a “mess” and was not surprised by the poll results. Another outgoing minister said there is “no big panic” and that the party being at 20% would motivate their core base. They stressed the importance of a strong final week and a good leaders’ debate.
When asked if the Kanturk incident would overshadow his campaign, Harris admitted his mistake and took responsibility, stating, “I’m human, I make mistakes. I own it, put my hands up, and admit when I’m wrong.”
Fianna Fáil is now positioned to make gains in constituencies such as Roscommon-Galway, Donegal, Carlow-Kilkenny, Kildare South, Louth, Clare, and potentially Dublin South-Central and Dublin Rathdown.
