Government Formation Takes Center Stage as All Seats Filled

Counting in the General Election concluded last night with the final two seats in Cavan-Monaghan being filled by Fianna Fáil’s Brendan Smith and Niamh Smyth. Fianna Fáil ended with 48 TDs, followed by Sinn Féin with 39, Fine Gael with 38, Independents with 16, Labour and Social Democrats each with 11, PBP-Solidarity with 3, Aontú with 2, Independent Ireland with 4, Green Party with 1, and the 100% Redress Party with 1.

Attention now shifts to forming the next government. Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, and Sinn Féin will each hold parliamentary party meetings tomorrow, while the Social Democrats will meet online today. They have written to Sinn Féin, Labour, Fianna Fáil, and Fine Gael to discuss the next steps.

The results of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael’s internal meetings could lead to preliminary engagements before Christmas, but substantial negotiations might only start in January. Combined, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael hold 86 seats, just two short of a majority in the Dáil, which now has 174 seats following last year’s Electoral Commission review. A coalition will need at least 88 seats for a working majority, requiring support from Independent TDs or a smaller party.

Meanwhile, Sinn Féin has reached out to Labour and the Social Democrats to explore potential collaborations. Labour leader Ivana Bacik stated she intends to first talk with the Social Democrats and Green Party leader Roderic O’Gorman, and that Labour is currently not willing to join a Fianna Fáil-Fine Gael government on its own.

The Dáil is scheduled to convene on 18 December, but it remains uncertain if a new government will be formed by then.

Sinn Féin’s Housing Spokesperson Eoin Ó Broin commented that while Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael could form a government with additional support, this would be a poor outcome for those who voted for change. He reiterated Sinn Féin’s preference for a government excluding both parties, but acknowledged they are open to discussions with all parties if necessary. He noted the election resulted in a larger and more cohesive progressive left bloc, combining Sinn Féin, Labour, and the Social Democrats.

Despite some disappointments, Ó Broin highlighted positive aspects of the election for Sinn Féin, which consolidated its position as the second-largest party in the Dáil.

Independent TD Marian Harkin of Sligo-Leitrim expressed interest in supporting the next government but emphasized the need for conversations among like-minded Independents to strengthen their position. Independent Ireland TD Michael Fitzmaurice of Roscommon-Galway noted he has not been approached by any of the main parties and described the current situation as a lot of “shadow boxing,” with Fine Gael likely to negotiate hard to achieve an equal share in the new government. He stressed the importance of forming a stable government and expressed Independent Ireland’s willingness to engage in talks focused on policy.