The Daily Star Ireland
Some within Fine Gael believe that the combined seat count with Fianna Fáil could fall between 78 and 80, though this may be an overly optimistic interpretation of the Exit Poll data. It is still too early to make definitive predictions about the exact number of seats each party will secure.
The Exit Poll, conducted by Ipsos B&A and involving RTÉ, The Irish Times, TG4, and Trinity College Dublin, shows that Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil are in a strong position to return to power. However, if the concept of a rotating taoiseach is to be implemented, the seat difference between the two parties cannot exceed six.
To secure a majority in the Dáil, they will need the support of additional parties to reach the threshold of 87 seats. This creates uncertainty, especially since their current coalition partners, the Greens, are expected to lose seats.
This situation opens up the possibility of an alliance among centre-left parties, including the Greens, Labour, and the Social Democrats. Together, they would hold significant influence in government formation talks. However, it seems unlikely that these three parties will agree on a unified approach before engaging with Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil.
Independents may also play a crucial role in forming the next government, though the larger parties seem more inclined to form an alliance with a single party rather than negotiating with a group of independents.
Even if Sinn Féin emerges as the largest party, it faces significant obstacles to power. Both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have expressed their unwillingness to share power with Sinn Féin. Furthermore, the strength of smaller parties and left-wing independents is not sufficient to enable Sinn Féin to form a government.
