With all votes now counted in the Dublin Central constituency, Independent candidate Gerard Hutch appears to be in strong contention for a seat, having garnered around 9% of first preference votes.
Gerard Hutch, also known as ‘The Monk’, has been identified by the Special Criminal Court as the head of the Hutch family.
Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald is on track to secure the first seat in this constituency with 20% of first preference votes. Fine Gael’s Paschal Donohoe and Gary Gannon of the Social Democrats also look poised to secure seats, with 17% and 13% of the votes, respectively.
The race for the fourth seat is likely between Mr. Hutch, Labour’s Marie Sherlock, who has 7%, and Fianna Fáil’s Mary Fitzpatrick, also with 7%. Neasa Hourigan, with around 6% of first preference votes, is unlikely to retain her seat and may be among several Green Party losses.
Cross-party tallying in Dublin Central has begun analyzing potential vote transfers from candidates likely to be eliminated first. They predict that if Ms. Fitzpatrick is eliminated, about 10% of her transfers will go to Ms. Sherlock, and if Ms. Hourigan is eliminated, 40% of her transfers will benefit Labour.
However, these gains are expected to be offset by the fact that 50% of Malachi Steenson’s transfers are projected to go to Mr. Hutch. Based on this analysis, Mr. Hutch now appears most likely to secure the fourth seat in the constituency.
Gerard Hutch was acquitted of the murder of Kinahan gang member David Byrne at the Regency Hotel in Dublin in February 2016. This murder escalated the ongoing feud between the Hutch and Kinahan Organized Crime Groups, resulting in 18 deaths to date.