The Daily Star Ireland
Italy’s World Championship 2026 qualifying campaign takes them to Tallinn, where they face Estonia in a crucial Group G clash at the A. Le Coq Arena. The Azzurri are rebuilding under Gennaro Gattuso after a turbulent start, while Estonia will rely on home support and defensive discipline to test one of Europe’s heavyweights. Recent form and historical dominance favor Italy, but Estonia’s grit could make this more competitive than expected.
Match Preview
After a rocky opening to their qualifying campaign, Italy appear to have rediscovered their rhythm. Gattuso’s arrival has injected intensity and clarity into the squad, replacing Luciano Spalletti’s possession-heavy approach with a more direct, high-pressing style. Italy have recorded back-to-back wins over Switzerland (2–0) and North Macedonia (3–1), showing signs of resurgence, though their earlier 3–0 defeat to Norway remains a reminder of their fragility.
Gattuso’s Italy combines experience and youth — Gianluigi Donnarumma provides security between the posts, Marco Verratti orchestrates the midfield, and Federico Chiesa brings pace and flair on the wing. With Ciro Immobile expected to lead the line, Italy will look to assert dominance early. The inclusion of Alessandro Bastoni, returning from injury, strengthens a backline that had been exposed in previous fixtures.
Estonia, led by Thomas Häberli, enter this match as underdogs but far from pushovers. Their campaign has been defined by narrow margins — a 3–2 win over Moldova showed attacking promise, while a 2–1 defeat to Israel underlined their vulnerability at the back. Captain Konstantin Vassiljev remains the team’s creative heartbeat, while striker Henri Anier will shoulder the goal-scoring burden. Goalkeeper Vladislav Krasnozhanov has been a standout performer, often keeping Estonia competitive against superior opposition.
Team Form & Recent Results
Italy (Last 5 Matches): W W L D W
Estonia (Last 5 Matches): L W L L D
Italy’s improved form has put them back in the qualification race, with seven points from their last nine available. Estonia, meanwhile, have struggled for consistency — scoring in most games but conceding too easily, particularly in the final 20 minutes.
Head-to-Head Record
Italy boast a flawless record against Estonia, winning all six of their previous meetings. Their last encounter ended in a 5–0 rout, with goals from Immobile, Berardi, and Barella. Estonia have yet to score more than once in any of those games, underscoring the gulf in class between the two sides.
Lineups, Injuries & Suspensions
Italy Predicted XI: Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Bastoni, Mancini, Dimarco; Barella, Verratti, Cristante; Chiesa, Immobile, Zaniolo
Estonia Predicted XI: Krasnozhanov; Teniste, Pikk, Mets, Tamm; Vassiljev, Sinyavskiy, Kait; Miller, Sorga, Anier
Injuries:
- Italy: Jorginho (out), Pellegrini (doubtful)
- Estonia: No major absences reported
Tactical Analysis & Key Players
Italy’s revamped tactical setup under Gattuso emphasizes pressing intensity and vertical transitions. The midfield trio of Verratti, Barella, and Cristante offers balance — combining work rate, creativity, and control. Chiesa’s direct running down the flank could stretch Estonia’s defensive shape, while Immobile’s movement in the box remains Italy’s best goal outlet.
For Estonia, compactness will be key. Expect Häberli to deploy a low block, frustrating Italy and hitting on the counter through Vassiljev’s passing and Anier’s physicality. Their defensive shape must remain disciplined for 90 minutes to stand any chance of securing a result.
Odds, Markets & Betting Tips
- Match Winner: Italy (1.25) | Draw (5.50) | Estonia (10.00)
- Over/Under 2.5 Goals: Over (1.70) | Under (2.10)
- Both Teams to Score: Yes (2.80) | No (1.40)
Betting Insights:
- Italy have kept clean sheets in four of their last six competitive matches.
- Estonia have lost nine of their last ten qualifiers.
- Five of Italy’s last six wins over Estonia came by a margin of at least two goals.
Where to Watch Online & Kickoff Time
Venue: A. Le Coq Arena, Tallinn, Estonia
Date: October 11, 2025
Kickoff Time: 20:45 local time (EEST)
Broadcast: RAI Sport (Italy), ERR Sports (Estonia), UEFA.tv
Prediction: Italy vs Estonia, World Championship 2026 Qualifiers
Italy’s renewed confidence and superior individual quality make them strong favorites to secure three points in Tallinn. Estonia’s determination may keep them in the contest early on, but the Azzurri’s attacking depth should eventually wear them down. Expect a professional, composed display from Gattuso’s side.
