The Daily Star Ireland
Italy and Israel clash in a high-stakes World Cup 2026 qualifier at the Dacia Arena in Udine, with both nations level on nine points in Group I. The Azzurri are rediscovering rhythm under new boss Gennaro Gattuso, while Israel continue to show resilience amid political distractions. With both sides eyeing a top-two finish, this encounter could prove decisive in shaping qualification hopes.
Match Preview
This match arrives with layers of intrigue on and off the pitch. Italy, rejuvenated since Gattuso’s appointment, have recorded back-to-back wins, including a commanding 5-0 victory over Estonia that restored confidence after their rollercoaster 5-4 win over Israel last month. That chaotic contest, played on neutral ground in Hungary due to security concerns, exposed Italy’s defensive frailties but also showcased their attacking firepower.
Israel, led by Ran Ben Shimon, have handled adversity admirably. Despite off-field protests and mounting travel disruptions, the team remains competitive, sitting level with Italy on points. Their 3-1 win over Estonia and narrow loss to the Azzurri proved they can trouble stronger opponents. However, the tense political atmosphere surrounding this fixture may affect focus, especially with demonstrations expected around the stadium in Udine.
Team Form & Recent Results
Italy (Last 5 matches): W-W-L-W-W
Goals For: 14 | Goals Against: 7 | Clean Sheets: 2
Gattuso’s Italy are still a work in progress but trending upward. The team’s shift toward compact pressing and vertical transitions has created more scoring chances, averaging 2.8 goals per game across their last five fixtures. Moise Kean and Mateo Retegui have emerged as key figures up front, while Nicolò Barella continues to anchor the midfield with his tireless energy and vision.
Israel (Last 5 matches): L-W-D-L-W
Goals For: 9 | Goals Against: 10 | Clean Sheets: 1
Israel’s results have been mixed, but their performances reflect tactical discipline and mental fortitude. Dan Biton and Mohammad Abu Fani have been standout performers, dictating tempo and finding space between lines. However, defensive lapses, especially away from home, remain their Achilles’ heel—they’ve conceded at least twice in four of their last five matches.
Head-to-Head Record
Italy hold the upper hand in this matchup, having dominated in recent years.
Last 5 Meetings (all competitions):
- Israel 4–5 Italy
- Italy 3–1 Israel
- Israel 1–3 Italy
- Italy 1–0 Israel
- Israel 0–2 Italy
Aggregate: Italy 14–6 Israel
The Azzurri have won all five of their last meetings and scored an average of nearly three goals per game. Israel, while competitive, have yet to record a victory over Italy in official qualifiers.
Lineups, Injuries & Suspensions
Italy (expected XI):
Donnarumma – Di Lorenzo, Mancini, Bastoni, Dimarco – Barella, Locatelli, Frattesi – Cambiaghi, Retegui, Kean
Unavailable: Matteo Politano (injury), Mattia Zaccagni (injury)
Israel (expected XI):
Glazer – Dasa, Tibi, Dahan, Menachem – Biton, Abu Fani, Peretz – Baribo, Solomon, Chery
Unavailable: Dor Peretz (suspended), Liel Abada (injured)
Gattuso’s lineup balances energy and structure, with Barella and Locatelli orchestrating midfield control. For Israel, Ben Shimon will rely on a narrow 4-3-3 formation, emphasizing compact defense and quick counters.
Tactical Analysis & Key Players
Italy’s average possession rate of 61% under Gattuso reflects their intent to dominate. Their high press and sharp ball recoveries often force opponents into mistakes. The key lies in turning those turnovers into efficient attacks, a role Retegui and Kean have executed well. Defensively, however, Italy’s back line has looked shaky against pace—something Israel’s wingers could exploit.
Israel will likely prioritize shape over ambition, focusing on frustrating Italy’s midfield. Abu Fani’s distribution and Biton’s composure are crucial to maintaining control when under pressure. Solomon’s pace on the counter may be Israel’s best weapon to disrupt the Italian rhythm.
Key Players:
- Nicolò Barella (Italy): The heartbeat of Gattuso’s system, balancing aggression and creativity.
- Moise Kean (Italy): Provides movement and finishing; scored twice in the last three qualifiers.
- Dan Biton (Israel): Technical and intelligent, capable of unlocking defenses with incisive passing.
Odds, Markets & Betting Tips
1X2 Odds: Italy 1.33 | Draw 4.50 | Israel 8.50
Over/Under 2.5 Goals: Over 1.65 | Under 2.20
Both Teams to Score (BTTS): Yes 2.10 | No 1.60
Betting Trends:
- Italy have won 17 of their last 20 home qualifiers.
- Israel have lost 14 of their last 21 away matches in competitive play.
- Italy have scored 3+ goals in 4 of their last 5 games.
- Israel have conceded in six straight away fixtures.
Quick Facts (Featured Snippet):
- Venue: Dacia Arena, Udine (Italy)
- Kickoff: October 14, 20:45 CET / 19:45 BST
- Competition: FIFA World Cup 2026 Qualifiers, Group I
Expert Tip: Italy to win with over 2.5 goals looks like the strongest play, considering both teams’ recent scoring trends.
Where to Watch Online & Kickoff Time
Live Broadcast: RAI 1 (Italy), Sport 5 (Israel), UEFA.tv (international stream)
Kickoff: 20:45 local time (Udine) / 21:45 CET / 14:45 ET
Fans can follow live commentary via the official FIFA match center and major sports apps.
Prediction: Italy vs Israel, 2026 World Cup Qualifiers
Italy’s improving chemistry under Gattuso, combined with home advantage, makes them clear favorites. Israel’s spirit can’t be dismissed, but their defensive gaps and limited depth are likely to be exposed against a confident Azzurri side. Expect early pressure, dominance in midfield, and moments of individual brilliance from Italy’s attackers.
Final Prediction: Italy 3–0 Israel
Best Bet: Italy to Win & Over 2.5 Goals
Alternative Value: Italy to Win to Nil
Gattuso’s men should extend their winning run with a professional, high-energy performance that keeps them firmly on track for World Cup qualification.
