The Daily Star Ireland
Japan host Brazil in a highly anticipated international friendly at the National Stadium in Tokyo, with both sides looking to fine-tune their form ahead of the 2026 World Cup. The Samurai Blue are winless in their last three matches, while the Seleção arrive in Tokyo full of confidence after a resounding 5–0 victory over South Korea. With two contrasting trajectories, this clash promises to be an intriguing test of depth, discipline, and star power.
Match Preview
Japan continue their World Cup preparations under Hajime Moriyasu, but recent results have raised questions. Their 2–2 draw with Paraguay last week highlighted both their resilience and defensive lapses, with Ayase Ueda salvaging a late equalizer in stoppage time. However, the draw extended Japan’s winless streak to three games, following a 0–2 loss to the United States and a 0–0 stalemate with Mexico. Despite flashes of attacking brilliance, the lack of clinical finishing remains a concern heading into this matchup against one of the world’s most formidable sides.
Brazil, meanwhile, are beginning to click under Carlo Ancelotti. The five-time world champions bounced back emphatically from a shaky qualifying campaign with a 5–0 demolition of South Korea, led by their star trio Vinícius Jr, Rodrygo, and Estevão. The Seleção finished fifth in the CONMEBOL qualifiers but have since rediscovered their attacking rhythm. Ancelotti’s focus has been on consistency and structure, and the recent display in Seoul was a statement of intent ahead of tougher tests in Asia.
Team Form & Recent Results
Japan (Last 5 matches): D-L-D-W-D
Goals For: 5 | Goals Against: 6 | Clean Sheets: 1
Japan’s performances have been mixed. They’ve shown creativity through Takefusa Kubo and Daichi Kamada, but their defensive structure has wavered against physically stronger teams. Injuries to key regulars have also disrupted rhythm, and Moriyasu has had to rely heavily on squad rotation to maintain intensity.
Brazil (Last 5 matches): W-D-W-D-W
Goals For: 13 | Goals Against: 3 | Clean Sheets: 3
Brazil have built momentum with attacking fluidity and defensive solidity. The emergence of Estevão, who scored in each of his last two appearances, adds a new dimension to Ancelotti’s front line. The Seleção have kept three clean sheets in their last five games, signaling a balanced evolution between flair and discipline.
Head-to-Head Record
Brazil dominate this fixture historically, rarely slipping up against Japan.
Last 5 Meetings:
- Brazil 1–0 Japan
- Japan 1–3 Brazil
- Brazil 4–0 Japan
- Japan 0–4 Brazil
- Brazil 3–0 Japan
Aggregate: Brazil 15–1 Japan
Japan have never beaten Brazil in an official senior international match, with the South Americans consistently controlling possession and scoring freely.
Lineups, Injuries & Suspensions
Japan (expected XI):
Nishikawa – Tomiyasu, Yoshida, Ito, Nagatomo – Endo, Kamada – Doan, Kubo, Minamino – Ueda
Unavailable: Wataru Endo (Liverpool), Kaoru Mitoma (Brighton), Ko Itakura (Ajax), Hiroki Ito (Bayern Munich), Koki Machida (Hoffenheim)
Japan’s midfield has been weakened by the absence of Endo, their key holding player, while Mitoma’s injury deprives them of width and pace. The responsibility will fall on Kamada and Kubo to link play and exploit spaces in Brazil’s half.
Brazil (expected XI):
Bento – Danilo, Gabriel, Militão, Arana – Casemiro, Guimarães, Paquetá – Rodrygo, Richarlison, Vinícius Jr
Unavailable: Alisson (Liverpool), Ederson (Fenerbahçe), Marquinhos (PSG), Raphinha (Barcelona), Neymar (Santos), Antony (Betis), João Pedro (Chelsea)
Despite notable absences, Brazil remain stacked with talent. The midfield trio of Casemiro, Bruno Guimarães, and Lucas Paquetá brings balance, while the forward line — led by Vinícius Jr and Rodrygo — guarantees explosive transitions.
Tactical Analysis & Key Players
Japan: Moriyasu’s side thrive on movement and pressing but often struggle when defending deep against top-tier opposition. The Samurai Blue will look to dominate possession in phases, using Kubo and Doan to stretch Brazil’s defense. Ueda will serve as the target man, capitalizing on second balls and late runs. The challenge will be maintaining compactness when Brazil counterattacks — something that has cost Japan in past meetings.
Brazil: Under Ancelotti, Brazil are more structured yet just as lethal in attack. Expect a 4-3-3 setup with Casemiro anchoring midfield while Paquetá pushes forward. Vinícius Jr and Rodrygo interchange positions frequently, making them difficult to mark. The inclusion of Estevão, who thrives in one-on-one situations, could stretch Japan’s back line. With Richarlison operating centrally, Brazil will look to exploit Japan’s high defensive line through direct play and diagonal runs.
Key Players:
- Japan: Takefusa Kubo (creativity), Daichi Kamada (link-up play), Ayase Ueda (finishing)
- Brazil: Vinícius Jr (pace and dribbling), Rodrygo (goal threat), Casemiro (midfield control)
Odds, Markets & Betting Tips
1X2 Odds: Japan 6.00 | Draw 4.20 | Brazil 1.45
Over/Under 2.5 Goals: Over 1.80 | Under 2.00
Both Teams to Score (BTTS): Yes 2.15 | No 1.65
Betting Trends:
- Brazil have won 9 of their last 10 meetings with Japan.
- Japan have failed to score in 4 of those 10 encounters.
- Brazil have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 5 matches.
Quick Facts (Featured Snippet):
- Venue: National Stadium, Tokyo (Japan)
- Kickoff Time: Tuesday, 18:30 local / 09:30 GMT / 10:30 CET
- Competition: International Friendly
Expert Tip: Brazil to win to nil is the safest market given Japan’s scoring inconsistency and Brazil’s defensive control.
Where to Watch Online & Kickoff Time
Live Broadcast: NHK (Japan), Globo (Brazil), FIFA+ (international stream)
Kickoff: 18:30 local (Tokyo) / 09:30 GMT / 10:30 CET
Prediction: Japan vs Brazil, International Friendly
Japan will aim to challenge Brazil with their high-tempo play and technical precision, but the Seleção’s firepower and structure should prevail. Ancelotti’s side look sharp, composed, and lethal in transitions, making them clear favorites in Tokyo. Expect Brazil to dominate possession, control tempo, and capitalize on Japan’s defensive gaps.
Final Prediction: Japan 0–3 Brazil
Best Bet: Brazil to Win to Nil
Alternative Value: Vinícius Jr to Score Anytime
Brazil’s superior depth and efficiency in front of goal should see them cruise to another convincing victory as they continue to build momentum ahead of the 2026 World Cup.
