The Daily Star Ireland
Latvia host England at the Daugava Stadium in Riga in a pivotal 2026 World Cup qualifier that pits determination against dominance. The hosts have shown flashes of promise under Paolo Nicolato, but England, managed by Thomas Tuchel, arrive in red-hot form after a series of emphatic wins.
With both sides on contrasting trajectories and the Three Lions chasing perfection, this clash looks set to test Latvia’s defensive grit and England’s attacking depth.
Match Preview
Latvia’s qualifying campaign has been one of mixed emotions — moments of resilience offset by lapses in concentration. Their narrow 1-0 win over Andorra and 1-1 draw with Albania displayed grit, but back-to-back defeats against Serbia and Albania exposed their fragility at the back.
Missing captain Kristers Tobers has compounded their struggles, leaving Nicolato to rely on youthful energy and tactical compactness to compensate. The Italian coach’s philosophy emphasizes defensive structure and quick counters, but goals remain scarce.
England, in contrast, are playing with freedom and flair. Tuchel’s men have been ruthless in front of goal, dispatching Serbia 5-0 before easing past Wales 3-0 in a friendly. Even without Harry Kane, Phil Foden, and Jude Bellingham, the Three Lions have maintained their high standards thanks to emerging talents like Morgan Rogers and Bukayo Saka, who have both impressed with their directness and creativity. Tuchel’s tactical rotation has been key, keeping the squad fresh while building depth across all positions.
The stakes are high for both teams. England will look to maintain their unbeaten run and cement top spot in Group K, while Latvia aim to restore pride at home and make life difficult for one of Europe’s elite.
Team Form & Recent Results
Latvia (Last 5 matches): L-D-W-L-L
Goals For: 3 | Goals Against: 8 | Clean Sheets: 1
Latvia’s defensive discipline has improved under Nicolato, but their attack still lacks consistency. Youngsters Niks Sliede and Dario Šits have shown promise, while Aleksejs Saveljevs has become their creative heartbeat in midfield. However, lapses in marking and set-piece defending continue to cost them valuable points.
England (Last 5 matches): W-W-W-D-W
Goals For: 14 | Goals Against: 2 | Clean Sheets: 3
England are unbeaten in their last five, combining attacking fluidity with defensive solidity. Declan Rice has excelled in controlling tempo, while Bukayo Saka and Morgan Rogers have provided penetration on the flanks. Defensively, Tuchel’s men have conceded just two goals in five games, underlining their balance across the pitch.
Head-to-Head Record
England have historically dominated this matchup.
Last 5 Meetings (all competitions):
- England 3–0 Latvia
- England 4–0 Latvia
- Latvia 0–2 England
- England 2–0 Latvia
- Latvia 1–3 England
Aggregate: England 14–1 Latvia
Latvia have never beaten England in their history, and they’ve failed to score in three of the last four meetings.
Lineups, Injuries & Suspensions
Latvia (expected XI):
Purins – Dubra, Sorokins, Oss, Dubovskis – Saveljevs, Cernomordijs – Sliede, Gutkovskis, Dario Šits – Uldrikis
Unavailable: Kristers Tobers (injured)
England (expected XI):
Pickford – Walker, Stones, Guehi, Chilwell – Rice, Loftus-Cheek – Saka, Eze, Rogers – Watkins
Unavailable: Harry Kane, Phil Foden, Jude Bellingham (injuries/fitness)
Latvia will likely employ a compact 4-2-3-1 system, sitting deep and relying on transitions. England, meanwhile, are expected to maintain their fluid 4-3-3 shape, pressing high and rotating midfielders to dominate possession.
Tactical Analysis & Key Players
Latvia’s strength lies in their structure. Nicolato’s men will aim to stay organized, block central passing lanes, and counter quickly through Gutkovskis and Šits. However, they must handle England’s pressing intensity and avoid turnovers near their box.
Tuchel’s England thrive on rhythm and possession control. Expect Rice to dictate tempo, while Loftus-Cheek and Eze provide vertical progression. On the wings, Saka’s pace and Rogers’s direct runs stretch defenses, allowing overlapping full-backs to create overloads. England’s set-piece threat remains a major weapon, with Stones and Rice both strong in aerial duels.
Key Players:
- Latvia: Aleksejs Saveljevs (playmaker), Vladislavs Gutkovskis (target man), Roberts Uldrikis (link-up play)
- England: Declan Rice (controller), Bukayo Saka (creative outlet), Morgan Rogers (emerging goal threat)
Odds, Markets & Betting Tips
1X2 Odds: Latvia 17.00 | Draw 6.50 | England 1.18
Over/Under 2.5 Goals: Over 1.70 | Under 2.10
Both Teams to Score (BTTS): Yes 2.90 | No 1.40
Betting Trends:
- England have kept five clean sheets in their last seven away matches.
- Latvia have failed to score in three of their last four qualifiers.
- England have scored 3+ goals in four of their last five outings.
- Latvia’s last five home games have averaged under 2.5 total goals.
Quick Facts (Featured Snippet):
- Venue: Daugava Stadium, Riga (Latvia)
- Kickoff: 20:45 local / 19:45 BST
- Competition: FIFA World Cup 2026 Qualifiers, Group K
Expert Tip: England to win to nil offers strong value, considering both sides’ recent form and defensive trends.
Where to Watch Online & Kickoff Time
Live Broadcast: Channel 4 (UK), Viaplay (Latvia), FIFA+ (international stream)
Kickoff: 20:45 local time (Riga) / 19:45 BST / 14:45 ET
Prediction: Latvia vs England, 2026 World Cup Qualifiers
England’s depth, pace, and tactical organization make them overwhelming favorites, even on the road. Latvia’s commitment and home support might keep things tight early, but Tuchel’s side should gradually assert control. Expect another professional performance from the visitors as they continue their march toward qualification.
Final Prediction: Latvia 0–3 England
Best Bet: England to Win to Nil
Alternative Value: England to Win & Over 2.5 Goals
England’s consistency, squad depth, and attacking versatility should be too much for Latvia, with the Three Lions expected to secure another comfortable away victory.
