The Daily Star Ireland
The Guadalajara Open brings an intriguing second-round encounter as third seed Jelena Ostapenko begins her campaign against Marina Stakusic. This is their second career meeting, and the winner will book a quarter-final clash against either Storm Hunter or Emiliana Arango.
Ostapenko’s Path and Motivation
Ostapenko enters the tournament as the favorite, having benefited from a first-round bye. The Latvian arrives fresher than her opponent and with extra motivation: a chance to avenge her loss to Stakusic at this exact stage in Guadalajara last year.
The 2017 French Open champion has had a strong 2025 season, highlighted by a title in Stuttgart and a runner-up finish in Doha. However, her recent form has been mixed, with an early second-round exit at the US Open. She currently sits 24th in the live WTA rankings, and Guadalajara offers an opportunity to regain momentum.
Stakusic’s Challenge
Canadian youngster Marina Stakusic made headlines last year by defeating Ostapenko here before bowing out in the quarterfinals. Replicating or improving on that run will be challenging, given her struggles in 2025.
This season, Stakusic has often faltered in qualifying rounds, but she successfully battled through in Guadalajara, defeating Amandine Hesse and Iryna Shymanovich to earn her spot in the main draw. She has reached the second round in Cluj as her best WTA result this year. Facing a Grand Slam winner again at this stage provides both a stern test and a chance to revive her season.
Key Factors to Watch
- Head-to-head: Stakusic won their only prior meeting, which went to three sets.
- Ostapenko’s form: She has dropped at least one set in six of her last seven matches.
- Stakusic’s record: Half of her last 10 hard-court matches have gone over 2.5 sets.
- Tournament history: Two of Stakusic’s last four Guadalajara matches needed a decider, highlighting her tendency for long battles.
Betting Odds and Prediction
Bookmakers suggest a closer contest than rankings might indicate:
- Ostapenko: 52.19% chance of victory (odds 1.29 at Bet365).
- Stakusic: 47.81% chance of victory (odds 4.00 at Betway).
Our Prediction: Match to Go Three Sets
Given Ostapenko’s recent tendency to drop sets and the fact that Stakusic already beat her here in 2024, this clash has all the makings of another drawn-out battle. Ostapenko’s superior pedigree should see her through eventually, but Stakusic’s resilience and Guadalajara record point to a deciding set.
Prediction: The match will have three sets.
