The Daily Star Ireland
Spain travel to Sofia to face Bulgaria in a key 2026 World Cup qualifier, aiming to extend their unbeaten run and cement their spot at the top of Group E. The European champions arrive in dominant form after their Euro 2024 success and a narrow Nations League final loss, while Bulgaria are enduring another frustrating campaign, struggling for results and consistency.
With both sides at opposite ends of the table, this match has a clear favorite — but Bulgaria’s home crowd will be desperate to inspire an upset at the Vasil Levski National Stadium.
Match Preview
Spain’s resurgence under Luis de la Fuente has been one of the defining stories of the European football calendar. Their fluid, possession-heavy style has evolved beyond traditional tiki-taka, now blending control with incisive attacking play. Lamine Yamal, the 17-year-old sensation, continues to steal headlines, while captain Álvaro Morata remains a dependable finisher. Despite a few key injuries — Gavi, Fabián Ruiz, and Yeremy Pino remain sidelined — Spain’s depth means De la Fuente can rotate without compromising quality. Aleix García and Jorge de Frutos are expected to slot into midfield and wide roles respectively, ensuring fluidity in attack.
Bulgaria, by contrast, find themselves in survival mode. Under Ilian Iliev, the Lions have endured a rough spell, highlighted by a 4–0 defeat to Greece and a goalless draw against Luxembourg. The team’s goal-scoring woes have persisted, with just two goals in their last five matches. Defensive resilience will be their main focus, likely lining up in a 5-4-1 formation to contain Spain’s creativity. Aberdeen goalkeeper Dimitar Mitov should start between the posts, with Aleksandar Kolev leading the line up front — though chances may be few and far between.
Spain’s away record in qualifiers is formidable — unbeaten in European qualification on the road since 2021. Their previous meeting with Bulgaria ended in a convincing 3–0 win in Sofia, setting the tone for what could be another dominant display.
Team Form & Recent Results
Spain (Last 5 matches): W-W-W-L-W
Goals For: 12 | Goals Against: 2 | Clean Sheets: 3
Spain’s form has been exceptional. They’ve won four of their last five matches, including a 2–0 victory over Armenia and a dominant 3–0 performance in the reverse fixture against Bulgaria. Their control of possession (averaging 66%) and defensive discipline (only one goal conceded in five qualifiers) make them overwhelming favorites.
Bulgaria (Last 5 matches): L-D-L-L-D
Goals For: 2 | Goals Against: 9 | Clean Sheets: 1
Bulgaria have failed to find consistency or confidence, particularly in the attacking third. They’ve scored just twice in their last five outings and remain without a win in competitive fixtures since March. Iliev’s men have struggled to adapt to higher-intensity opposition, especially defensively, conceding nine goals in that stretch.
Head-to-Head Record
Spain have completely dominated this fixture in modern times.
Last 5 Meetings:
- Spain 3–0 Bulgaria
- Bulgaria 0–4 Spain
- Spain 2–1 Bulgaria
- Bulgaria 0–3 Spain
- Spain 1–0 Bulgaria
Aggregate: Spain 13–1 Bulgaria
The historical trend is clear — Spain have won every meeting between the two nations over the past decade, often by multi-goal margins.
Lineups, Injuries & Suspensions
Spain (expected XI):
Unai Simón – Carvajal, Le Normand, Laporte, Grimaldo – Rodri, Pedri, Aleix García – Lamine Yamal, Morata (c), Dani Olmo
Unavailable: Gavi (ACL), Fabián Ruiz (hamstring), Yeremy Pino (ankle)
Bulgaria (expected XI):
Mitov – Turitsov, Hristov, Antov, Bozhikov, Nedyalkov – Delev, Tsvetkov, Yankov, Petkov – Kolev
Unavailable: Kiril Despodov (suspension), Petar Vitanov (injury)
Spain are expected to field a full-strength lineup, with Pedri pulling the strings in midfield and Yamal providing width and unpredictability. Bulgaria, missing star winger Despodov, will rely on defensive discipline and counterattacking moments.
Tactical Analysis & Key Players
Spain will look to dictate possession from the first whistle, pressing high and exploiting Bulgaria’s defensive shape. Rodri’s control at the base of midfield will be crucial, while Lamine Yamal’s pace and 1v1 ability could unlock Bulgaria’s deep back line. Expect Dani Olmo to drift between lines, supporting Morata as Spain aim to overload wide areas.
For Bulgaria, Iliev will emphasize compactness and organization, using five at the back to limit Spain’s space in the final third. Their best chances may come from set pieces or quick transitions led by Delev and Kolev. However, with an average possession rate of just 37% in qualifiers, maintaining any sustained pressure will be difficult.
Key Players:
- Spain: Lamine Yamal (winger, creativity), Álvaro Morata (finisher), Rodri (midfield anchor)
- Bulgaria: Aleksandar Kolev (target man), Dimitar Mitov (goalkeeper), Petar Hristov (defensive leader)
Odds, Markets & Betting Tips
1X2 Odds: Spain 1.20 | Draw 5.50 | Bulgaria 10.00
Over/Under 2.5 Goals: Over 1.70 | Under 2.10
Both Teams to Score (BTTS): Yes 2.80 | No 1.45
Betting Trends:
- Spain have won 8 of their last 9 qualifiers.
- Bulgaria have lost 6 of their last 7 home games in World Cup qualifying.
- Spain have scored 3+ goals in 5 of their last 7 matches against Bulgaria.
Quick Facts (Featured Snippet):
- Venue: Vasil Levski National Stadium, Sofia (Bulgaria)
- Kickoff: Saturday, 20:45 local / 19:45 CET
- Competition: FIFA World Cup 2026 Qualifiers, Group E
Expert Tip: Spain to win & Over 2.5 Goals offers the best value given their attacking form and Bulgaria’s defensive fragility.
Where to Watch Online & Kickoff Time
Live Broadcast: RTVE (Spain), BNT 1 (Bulgaria), FIFA+ (international stream)
Kickoff Time: Saturday, 20:45 local / 19:45 CET / 18:45 BST
Prediction: Spain vs Bulgaria, 2026 World Cup Qualifiers
Spain’s class, control, and cutting edge make them overwhelming favorites to take three points in Sofia. Bulgaria may defend deep and frustrate for spells, but the visitors’ movement and technical superiority should eventually wear them down. Expect Spain to dominate possession, create numerous chances, and extend their perfect qualifying run.
Final Prediction: Bulgaria 0–3 Spain
Best Bet: Spain to Win & Over 2.5 Goals
Alternative Value: Álvaro Morata to Score Anytime
Spain’s attacking depth and composure should make the difference once again, keeping their World Cup qualification campaign firmly on track.
